Moreirense 3-1 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
32%
3.18
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.53
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.68
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.76
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
9%
14.3
X/1
12%
4.19
X/2
10%
7.43
X/X
15%
3.98
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
11%
6.16
2/X
8%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
47%
-9.4pp
32%
Draw
28%
+3.8pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moreirense EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.39/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.31
+4% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +23%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
19.9 Crosses 15.6
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moreirense
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Arouca
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.38 xG 0.95
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
219 Passes 414
68% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.03.2024 Moreirense Moreirense 1-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
27.10.2023 Arouca Arouca 0-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
22.12.2022 Moreirense Moreirense 1-2 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca PORLC
26.02.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 0-1 Moreirense Moreirense POR
25.09.2021 Moreirense Moreirense 2-1 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR
30.04.2017 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 2-0 Moreirense Moreirense POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moreirense
3-1
AWAY Arouca
2.50 xG 1.01
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 Passes 415
87% Pass Accuracy 87%
22 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Moreirense vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense beat Arouca 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Moreirense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Moreirense had 43% of the ball to Arouca's 57%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 2.50 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Moreirense had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Moreirense and 1.00 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Moreirense vs Arouca?

Moreirense 3-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moreirense vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Moreirense 38%, draw 32%, Arouca 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Moreirense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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