Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 18 Aug 2024

📅18/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.57
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
25%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.78
Over 2.5
48%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
3.03
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
24%
3.86
6+ Goals
10%
17.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.25
X/1
21%
3.57
X/2
10%
11.3
X/X
14%
5.08
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
9%
9.65
2/X
5%
18.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
60%
-10.6pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.1pp
25%
Away Win
17%
+8.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.7pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 20%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -17%
1.57/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/2.18
-10% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -28%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
332 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
22.8 Crosses 17.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Estoril
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.35 xG 1.01
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
319 Passes 296
80% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
02.03.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-3 HT 0-3 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
01.10.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-2 HT 0-2 Estoril Estoril POR
04.02.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
14.08.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
23.01.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril POR
13.08.2021 Estoril Estoril 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1-0
AWAY Estoril
1.79 xG 0.20
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
452 Passes 278
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 7
30 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Estoril 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Vitoria Guimaraes as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 60% of the ball to Estoril's 40%, shots finished 18-3, expected goals 1.79 to 0.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Vitoria Guimaraes's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vitoria Guimaraes had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.67 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estoril?

Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 18/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 49%, draw 26%, Estoril 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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