AIK 1-0 Gefle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Sweden - Cup, 24 Feb 2024

AIK
1-0 HT 0-0
Gefle
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.22
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
13%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.43
Over 2.5
57%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.19
No
51%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.14
2-3 Goals
35%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.73
6+ Goals
17%
7.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
78%
-12.8pp
22%
Draw
15%
+7.2pp
13%
Away Win
7%
+5.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.4pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.2pp
51%
BTTS No
58%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AIK EU Bookmakers 82%
Head to Head
AWAY Gefle EU Bookmakers 9%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.19/0.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/2.85
-15% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / -14%
60% Ball Possession 40%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
439 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AIK
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Gefle
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
20 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
18.09.2016 AIK AIK 1-0 HT 0-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
23.05.2016 Gefle Gefle 0-1 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
23.08.2015 Gefle Gefle 1-2 HT 0-1 AIK AIK İSÇ
12.04.2015 AIK AIK 3-1 HT 1-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
10.08.2014 AIK AIK 3-1 HT 0-0 Gefle Gefle İSÇ
06.04.2014 Gefle Gefle 1-2 HT 0-0 AIK AIK İSÇ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AIK
1-0
AWAY Gefle
59% Ball Possession 41%
29 Total Shots 5
11 Shots on Target 3
12 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AIK vs Gefle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AIK nicked a narrow win over Gefle 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AIK as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AIK had 59% of the ball to Gefle's 41%, shots finished 29-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AIK had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for AIK and 0.67 for Gefle.

What was the final score of AIK vs Gefle?

AIK 1-0 Gefle in the Sweden - Cup on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AIK vs Gefle?

Before kick-off our model rated a AIK win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split AIK 65%, draw 22%, Gefle 13%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AIK), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (AIK) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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