Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 24 Feb 2024

Almeria
2-2 HT 1-1
Atletico Madrid
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Almeria vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
46%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.76
No
45%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.6
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals
26%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.18
1/2 EV+ ✗
7%
22.7
1/X
7%
15.4
X/1
7%
9.39
X/2
17%
3.99
X/X
14%
5.24
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.2
2/X
6%
14.7
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 7% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.9pp
46%
Away Win
54%
-8.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.7pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almeria v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almeria EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 58%
+6% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.20/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.90
-17% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +3%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
320 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 84%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
17.5 Crosses 14.3
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Almeria vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almeria
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 2.32
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
273 Passes 414
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 29
21 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 2-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
16.04.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 2-1 Almeria Almeria İS1
15.01.2023 Almeria Almeria 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
21.02.2015 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 3-0 Almeria Almeria İS1
24.09.2014 Almeria Almeria 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.02.2014 Almeria Almeria 2-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almeria
2-2
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.48 xG 1.55
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
281 Passes 454
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
9 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Almeria vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almeria and Atletico Madrid couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Madrid at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Almeria had 40% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 60%, shots finished 9-18, expected goals 0.48 to 1.55.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Almeria and 1.50 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?

Almeria 2-2 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almeria vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Almeria 27%, draw 27%, Atletico Madrid 46%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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