Adelaide United 1-2 Western Sydney Wanderers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 24 Feb 2024

Adelaide United
1-2 HT 0-2
Western Sydney Wanderers
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
32%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.43
No
45%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.44
2-3 Goals
39%
2.0
4-5 Goals
27%
2.67
6+ Goals
14%
6.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
3.2
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
24.85
1/X
5%
12.85
X/1
13%
5.61
X/2
9%
6.05
X/X
7%
5.97
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
16%
3.52
2/X
10%
12.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 24.85 — our 8% vs market 1.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
40%
+5.3pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.8pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
66%
-10.5pp
45%
BTTS No
34%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Western Sydney Wanderers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers EU Bookmakers 40%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -5%
1.72/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/1.55
+3% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -27% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 81%
30.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
23.6 Crosses 20.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.68 xG 1.28
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
370 Passes 342
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 25
23 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.12.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 1-0 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
29.08.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 5-1 HT 3-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUK
31.03.2023 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 2-3 HT 1-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
19.02.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-4 HT 2-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS
20.03.2022 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers 0-0 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
16.03.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 1-2 HT 1-1 Western Sydney Wanderers Western Sydney Wanderers AVUS

Adelaide United 1-2 Western Sydney Wanderers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
1-2
AWAY Western Sydney Wanderers
2.10 xG 2.13
54% Ball Possession 46%
24 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
15 Corners 4
356 Passes 318
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
38 Box Touches 17
40 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Western Sydney Wanderers squeezed past Adelaide United 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Adelaide United had 54% of the ball to Western Sydney Wanderers's 46%, shots finished 24-12, expected goals 2.10 to 2.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Western Sydney Wanderers led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Adelaide United and 2.33 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Adelaide United 1-2 Western Sydney Wanderers in the Australia - A-League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Western Sydney Wanderers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 45%, draw 22%, Western Sydney Wanderers 32%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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