Sydney 1-1 Melbourne City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 24 Feb 2024

Sydney
1-1 HT 1-0
Melbourne City
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒09:40 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Sydney vs Melbourne City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.8
Draw
22%
3.8
Away
24%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.61
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.43
No
40%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
6.12
2-3 Goals
39%
2.08
4-5 Goals
28%
2.56
6+ Goals
13%
5.62
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.3
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
13%
4.66
X/2
11%
8.56
X/X
9%
6.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
19.7
2/2
7%
5.27
2/X
6%
13.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.7 — our 13% vs market 2.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
51%
+2.8pp
21%
Draw
23%
-1.5pp
24%
Away Win
26%
-1.3pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
66%
-5.9pp
40%
BTTS No
34%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sydney v Melbourne City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sydney EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne City EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -11%
1.82/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.62
-20% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -3%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 79%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.5
20.9 Crosses 19.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 3.5

Sydney vs Melbourne City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sydney
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Melbourne City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.23 xG 1.61
40% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
316 Passes 502
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 29
14 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 2-0 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
24.09.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 1-2 HT 0-1 Sydney Sydney AVUK
19.05.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 4-0 HT 1-0 Sydney Sydney AVUS
12.05.2023 Sydney Sydney 1-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS
25.02.2023 Melbourne City Melbourne City 3-2 HT 3-1 Sydney Sydney AVUS
10.12.2022 Sydney Sydney 2-1 HT 1-1 Melbourne City Melbourne City AVUS

Sydney 1-1 Melbourne City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sydney
1-1
AWAY Melbourne City
1.19 xG 1.00
59% Ball Possession 41%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 2
347 Passes 215
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
39 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sydney vs Melbourne City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sydney and Melbourne City couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Sydney at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (60%) landed while over 2.5 goals (61%) missed.

On the day, Sydney had 59% of the ball to Melbourne City's 41%, shots finished 18-10, expected goals 1.19 to 1.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Melbourne City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Sydney and 2.00 for Melbourne City.

What was the final score of Sydney vs Melbourne City?

Sydney 1-1 Melbourne City in the Australia - A-League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sydney vs Melbourne City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sydney win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Sydney 54%, draw 21%, Melbourne City 24%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sydney), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sydney) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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