NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Feb 2024

NEC Nijmegen
2-0 HT 2-0
Sparta Rotterdam
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
31%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.47
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.43
6+ Goals
10%
12.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.43 — our 26% vs market 23.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.68
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.7
X/1
15%
4.44
X/2
13%
7.25
X/X
10%
4.91
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
12%
5.3
2/X
8%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
48%
-3.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
31%
Away Win
26%
+4.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v Sparta Rotterdam — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +29%
2.08/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.40
+28% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +76%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
325 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 73%
31.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
22.8 Crosses 15.7
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.4

NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.96 xG 1.23
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
391 Passes 256
81% Pass Accuracy 72%
24 Box Touches 20
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.09.2023 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
28.01.2023 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
16.10.2022 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 HT 2-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
19.03.2022 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 0-0 HT 0-0 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam HOL
17.09.2021 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
24.03.2019 Sparta Rotterdam Sparta Rotterdam 1-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL2

NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-0
AWAY Sparta Rotterdam
1.73 xG 1.38
44% Ball Possession 56%
22 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
313 Passes 393
83% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 33
19 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen got the better of Sparta Rotterdam 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 44% of the ball to Sparta Rotterdam's 56%, shots finished 22-13, expected goals 1.73 to 1.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Rotterdam led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.00 for Sparta Rotterdam.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

NEC Nijmegen 2-0 Sparta Rotterdam in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 45%, draw 24%, Sparta Rotterdam 31%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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