RKC Waalwijk 0-1 Fortuna Sittard — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Feb 2024

RKC Waalwijk
0-1 HT 0-0
Fortuna Sittard
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

RKC Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
30%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.74
Over 2.5
54%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.81
No
48%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.88
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
4.05
6+ Goals
12%
18.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 4.05 — our 26% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.53
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
5.11
X/2
11%
5.74
X/X
12%
4.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
29.5
2/2
13%
4.16
2/X
6%
13.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.5 — our 9% vs market 1.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
39%
+6.8pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
30%
Away Win
33%
-3.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
54%
-7.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
46%
+7.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
49%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RKC Waalwijk v Fortuna Sittard — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RKC Waalwijk EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 37%
+8% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.64/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.20
+24% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
329 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
26.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
18.5 Crosses 22.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.9

RKC Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RKC Waalwijk
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.61 xG 1.36
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
328 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 24
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 1-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
17.02.2023 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 3-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
15.10.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
23.01.2022 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
27.08.2021 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-2 HT 1-1 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk HOL
27.01.2021 RKC Waalwijk RKC Waalwijk 1-2 HT 0-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL

RKC Waalwijk 0-1 Fortuna Sittard — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RKC Waalwijk
0-1
AWAY Fortuna Sittard
0.22 xG 0.72
56% Ball Possession 44%
6 Total Shots 14
0 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 2
336 Passes 242
76% Pass Accuracy 67%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 14
POST-MATCH RKC Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Sittard squeezed past RKC Waalwijk 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was RKC Waalwijk at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, RKC Waalwijk had 56% of the ball to Fortuna Sittard's 44%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.22 to 0.72.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for RKC Waalwijk and 1.17 for Fortuna Sittard.

What was the final score of RKC Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?

RKC Waalwijk 0-1 Fortuna Sittard in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RKC Waalwijk vs Fortuna Sittard?

Before kick-off our model rated a RKC Waalwijk win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split RKC Waalwijk 46%, draw 24%, Fortuna Sittard 30%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (RKC Waalwijk) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
HOL More Netherlands - Eredivisie
24 Feb 2024
22:00 PEC Zwolle vs PSV Eindhoven Analysis →
23:00 NEC Nijmegen vs Sparta Rotterdam Analysis →