Estrela vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estrela v Chaves — Team-Based Signals
Estrela vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
2-2
HT 0-1
Estrela
POR
2-2
HT 2-1
Estrela
POR2
1-3
HT 0-2
Chaves
POR2
Estrela 1-1 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics
Estrela and Chaves couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.
Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Estrela had 63% of the ball to Chaves's 37%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.49 to 1.02.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Estrela and 2.33 for Chaves.
What was the final score of Estrela vs Chaves?
Estrela 1-1 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estrela vs Chaves?
Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Estrela 43%, draw 29%, Chaves 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Estrela) went the other way.