Estrela 1-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.75
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.25
6+ Goals
10%
21.05
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.76
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
15%
4.27
X/2
10%
7.26
X/X
17%
4.24
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
9%
5.81
2/X
6%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.1pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 29%
+40% / +40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -9%
1.16/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.62
+97% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -10%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
18.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
13.0 Crosses 19.1
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Chaves
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.88 xG 1.18
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
287 Passes 298
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 32
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
24.09.2023 Chaves Chaves 2-2 HT 0-1 Estrela Estrela POR
08.05.2022 Chaves Chaves 2-2 HT 2-1 Estrela Estrela POR2
27.12.2021 Estrela Estrela 1-3 HT 0-2 Chaves Chaves POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
1-1
AWAY Chaves
0.49 xG 1.02
63% Ball Possession 37%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 6
375 Passes 177
82% Pass Accuracy 66%
21 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela and Chaves couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Estrela at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Estrela had 63% of the ball to Chaves's 37%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.49 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Estrela and 2.33 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Chaves?

Estrela 1-1 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estrela win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Estrela 43%, draw 29%, Chaves 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Estrela) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Estrela) ✓ Under 2.5
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