Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 Casa Pia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 24 Feb 2024

Vitoria Guimaraes
0-2 HT 0-2
Casa Pia
📅24/02/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
19%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.74
Over 2.5
49%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.85
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.1
6+ Goals
10%
19.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
2.11
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.3
X/1
14%
3.67
X/2
6%
10.4
X/X
12%
4.69
2/1
6%
26.0
2/2
9%
8.88
2/X
6%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
57%
-0.8pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
19%
Away Win
18%
+1.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
54%
-2.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
46%
+2.3pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.9pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Casa Pia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 21%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.79/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.06
+11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +41%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
381 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 75%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.3
21.7 Crosses 19.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.8

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
1W-2D-1L
AWAY Casa Pia
0.25 Avg Goals (FT) 0.25
0.91 xG 0.95
54% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
432 Passes 284
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
19.02.2023 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
29.08.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
01.08.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 0-1 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes PORLC

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 Casa Pia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0-2
AWAY Casa Pia
1.39 xG 1.54
69% Ball Possession 31%
29 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 2
506 Passes 199
85% Pass Accuracy 70%
37 Box Touches 7
49 Crosses 3
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia beat Vitoria Guimaraes 2-0 away from home.

This one beat our numbers. Vitoria Guimaraes carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 69% of the ball to Casa Pia's 31%, shots finished 29-9, expected goals 1.39 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.25 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 0.25 for Casa Pia.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-2 Casa Pia in the Portugal - Premier League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Casa Pia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 56%, draw 25%, Casa Pia 19%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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