Fenerbahçe 2-1 Kasımpaşa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.25
Draw
19%
5.71
Away
20%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.96
Over 2.5
62%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
7.14
2-3 Goals
36%
2.2
4-5 Goals
29%
2.45
6+ Goals
15%
4.73
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.37
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
26.0
X/1
19%
3.58
X/2
6%
24.45
X/X
7%
10.65
2/1
8%
20.2
2/2
7%
16.8
2/X
6%
24.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
76%
-14.7pp
19%
Draw
15%
+4.4pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+10.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
30%
+7.4pp
62%
Over 2.5
70%
-7.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+4.1pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Kasımpaşa EU Bookmakers 12%
-3% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +15%
2.32/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.84
+19% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +39% / +13%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
477 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
32.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.5
21.2 Crosses 16.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fenerbahçe
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Kasımpaşa
3.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
3.00 xG 0.71
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
408 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 72%
32 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
08.10.2023 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-2 HT 0-2 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
29.01.2023 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 5-1 HT 2-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
15.08.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 0-6 HT 0-3 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
28.02.2022 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 1-2 HT 0-1 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe TSL
03.10.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 2-1 HT 2-0 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
25.04.2021 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 3-2 HT 3-1 Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fenerbahçe
2-1
AWAY Kasımpaşa
3.44 xG 0.81
64% Ball Possession 36%
17 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 3
352 Passes 140
75% Pass Accuracy 54%
32 Box Touches 5
26 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fenerbahçe nicked a narrow win over Kasımpaşa 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fenerbahçe as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fenerbahçe had 64% of the ball to Kasımpaşa's 36%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 3.44 to 0.81 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fenerbahçe's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fenerbahçe had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals for Fenerbahçe and 0.83 for Kasımpaşa.

What was the final score of Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?

Fenerbahçe 2-1 Kasımpaşa in the Turkey - Super League on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fenerbahçe vs Kasımpaşa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fenerbahçe win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Fenerbahçe 61%, draw 19%, Kasımpaşa 20%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fenerbahçe), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fenerbahçe) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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