Melgar vs Alianza Atletico Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Melgar v Alianza Atletico — Team-Based Signals
Melgar vs Alianza Atletico Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
4-0
HT 3-0
Alianza Atletico
PER
3-3
HT 0-2
Melgar
PER
0-1
HT 0-1
Alianza Atletico
PER
0-0
HT 0-0
Melgar
PER
Melgar 2-1 Alianza Atletico — Actual Match Statistics
Melgar squeezed past Alianza Atletico 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Melgar as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Melgar had 74% of the ball to Alianza Atletico's 26%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.73 to 0.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Melgar's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Melgar and 1.17 for Alianza Atletico.
What was the final score of Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
Melgar 2-1 Alianza Atletico in the Peru - Premier League on 24/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Melgar vs Alianza Atletico?
Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Melgar 60%, draw 23%, Alianza Atletico 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Melgar) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.