Motor Lublin 3-2 Katowice — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 24 Feb 2025

Motor Lublin
3-2 HT 2-1
Katowice
📅24/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Motor Lublin vs Katowice Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.38
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.95
Over 2.5
52%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.4
2-3 Goals
38%
1.75
4-5 Goals
25%
3.17
6+ Goals
13%
11.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.58
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.63
X/2
11%
5.88
X/X
10%
4.83
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
26.5
2/2
18%
3.83
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
38%
+0.4pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
+0.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
-0.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.9pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Motor Lublin v Katowice — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motor Lublin EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Katowice EU Bookmakers 39%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
1.39/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.96/1.90
-19% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +52% / +27%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
337 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
25.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
24.9 Crosses 15.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7

Motor Lublin vs Katowice Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motor Lublin
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Katowice
0.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.20
0.78 xG 0.87
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
336 Passes 364
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 21
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
16.08.2024 Katowice Katowice 0-0 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL
19.02.2024 Katowice Katowice 2-0 HT 1-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL1
06.08.2023 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 1-1 HT 0-1 Katowice Katowice POL1
19.05.2021 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 2-1 HT 1-0 Katowice Katowice POL2
29.11.2020 Katowice Katowice 2-1 HT 0-0 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin POL2

Motor Lublin 3-2 Katowice — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motor Lublin
3-2
AWAY Katowice
1.26 xG 2.05
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 27
5 Shots on Target 12
4 Corners 11
241 Passes 442
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
20 Box Touches 37
19 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Motor Lublin vs Katowice
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motor Lublin nicked a narrow win over Katowice 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Motor Lublin made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Motor Lublin had 40% of the ball to Katowice's 60%, shots finished 13-27, expected goals 1.26 to 2.05 — the balance of chances actually favoured Katowice.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Katowice led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.80 goals for Motor Lublin and 1.20 for Katowice.

What was the final score of Motor Lublin vs Katowice?

Motor Lublin 3-2 Katowice in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 24/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motor Lublin vs Katowice?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motor Lublin win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Motor Lublin 38%, draw 26%, Katowice 36%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Motor Lublin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Motor Lublin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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