Novi Pazar 2-1 Backa Topola — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 24 Feb 2025

Novi Pazar
2-1 HT 0-0
Backa Topola
📅24/02/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Serbia - Super League – 2024/2025

Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
45%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.18
Over 2.5
53%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.53
No
41%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
15%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
9%
X/2
10%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
29%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
37%
-9.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.6pp
45%
Away Win
39%
+6.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
42%
+4.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
58%
-4.7pp
59%
BTTS Yes
61%
-1.9pp
41%
BTTS No
39%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Novi Pazar v Backa Topola — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novi Pazar EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 43%
+23% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / +13%
1.39/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.36/1.02
+48% / +39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -9%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
314 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 76%
22.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
16.7 Crosses 16.2
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6

Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novi Pazar
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Backa Topola
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.36 xG 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
259 Passes 370
74% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 24
15 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
21.09.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 5-2 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
02.04.2024 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 3-4 HT 2-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
29.10.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP
04.05.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 4-0 HT 2-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRBK
05.02.2023 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar 2-1 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
06.08.2022 Backa Topola Backa Topola 0-1 HT 0-0 Novi Pazar Novi Pazar SIRP

Novi Pazar 2-1 Backa Topola — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novi Pazar
2-1
AWAY Backa Topola
1.28 xG 1.66
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 6
295 Passes 315
77% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novi Pazar nicked a narrow win over Backa Topola 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Backa Topola at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Novi Pazar had 50% of the ball to Backa Topola's 50%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.28 to 1.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Novi Pazar and 2.50 for Backa Topola.

What was the final score of Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola?

Novi Pazar 2-1 Backa Topola in the Serbia - Super League on 24/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novi Pazar vs Backa Topola?

Before kick-off our model rated an Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Novi Pazar 27%, draw 28%, Backa Topola 45%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Backa Topola) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →