Lugo 4-3 Sestao River — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 24 Mar 2024

📅24/03/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.04
Away
28%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.52
Over
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.09
No
53%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.3
2-3
43%
1.79
4-5
18%
5.32
6+
9%
33.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
45%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
29%
-4.3pp
28%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-6.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+6.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.8pp
53%
BTTS No
56%
-2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestao River EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.85/0.57 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.45/1.36
-37% / +52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
10.0 Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugo
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Sestao River
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
35% Ball Possession 65%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 13
4 Yellow Cards 0
02.12.2023 Sestao River Sestao River 0-1 HT 0-0 Lugo Lugo İS3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
4-3
AWAY Sestao River
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Sestao River
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugo squeezed past Sestao River 4-3. It was 1-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Lugo as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugo had 48% of the ball to Sestao River's 52%, shots finished 12-9.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Sestao River?

Lugo 4-3 Sestao River in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 24/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Sestao River?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugo win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lugo 47%, draw 25%, Sestao River 28%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugo) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugo) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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