JaPS 2-3 SalPa Salo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Finland - Ykkönen, 24 Apr 2024

📅24/04/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
39%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.6
No
56%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.89
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
21%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 30% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.4pp
22%
Draw
27%
-4.7pp
39%
Away Win
31%
+8.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
58%
-13.9pp
56%
BTTS No
42%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME JaPS EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY SalPa Salo EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -33% / -33%
1.67/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.32/0.98
+18% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -76% / +48%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
301 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 323 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME JaPS
1W-1D-1L
AWAY SalPa Salo
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
07.10.2023 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 1-2 HT 0-1 JaPS JaPS FINY
28.06.2023 JaPS JaPS 0-0 HT 0-0 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo FİN2
15.04.2023 SalPa Salo SalPa Salo 2-1 HT 1-1 JaPS JaPS FİN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME JaPS
2-3
AWAY SalPa Salo
57% Ball Possession 43%
9 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH JaPS vs SalPa Salo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SalPa Salo squeezed past JaPS 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 22% / 39%) promised a tight game; SalPa Salo found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, JaPS had 57% of the ball to SalPa Salo's 43%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for JaPS and 1.00 for SalPa Salo.

What was the final score of JaPS vs SalPa Salo?

JaPS 2-3 SalPa Salo in the Finland - Ykkönen on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for JaPS vs SalPa Salo?

Before kick-off our model rated a JaPS win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split JaPS 39%, draw 22%, SalPa Salo 39%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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