Monaco 1-0 Lille — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 24 Apr 2024

Monaco
1-0 HT 0-0
Lille
📅24/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.1
Over 2.5
44%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.6
No
52%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.07
6+ Goals
10%
9.82
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.08 — our 28% vs market 19.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.2
1/2
5%
28.5
1/X
12%
12.9
X/1
19%
5.23
X/2
10%
6.13
X/X
8%
5.19
2/1
7%
24.45
2/2
16%
3.98
2/X
7%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.2pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.2pp
31%
Away Win
33%
-2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+11.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-11.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monaco EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lille EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +11%
1.74/1.43 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.12
+23% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +32%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 82%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.1
17.2 Crosses 15.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monaco
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Lille
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.75 xG 1.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
352 Passes 334
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
23 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Lille Lille 2-0 HT 2-0 Monaco Monaco FR1
14.05.2023 Monaco Monaco 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
23.10.2022 Lille Lille 4-3 HT 2-2 Monaco Monaco FR1
06.05.2022 Lille Lille 1-2 HT 0-1 Monaco Monaco FR1
19.11.2021 Monaco Monaco 2-2 HT 1-2 Lille Lille FR1
14.03.2021 Monaco Monaco 0-0 HT 0-0 Lille Lille FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Monaco
1-0
AWAY Lille
1.59 xG 1.31
43% Ball Possession 57%
19 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
327 Passes 438
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
36 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Monaco vs Lille
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monaco edged past Lille 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monaco as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Monaco had 43% of the ball to Lille's 57%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 1.59 to 1.31.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lille led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Monaco and 1.50 for Lille.

What was the final score of Monaco vs Lille?

Monaco 1-0 Lille in the France - Ligue 1 on 24/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monaco vs Lille?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monaco win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Monaco 41%, draw 28%, Lille 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monaco), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Monaco) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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