Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atletico Mineiro v Ceara — Team-Based Signals
Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-0
HT 0-0
Ceara
BR1
0-0
HT 0-0
Atletico Mineiro
BR1
3-1
HT 2-0
Ceara
BR1
2-1
HT 1-0
Atletico Mineiro
BR1
Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Ceara — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Mineiro squeezed past Ceara 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Atletico Mineiro as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Atletico Mineiro had 59% of the ball to Ceara's 41%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 2.25 to 0.16 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Mineiro's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Atletico Mineiro and 0.50 for Ceara.
What was the final score of Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara?
Atletico Mineiro 2-1 Ceara in the Brazil - Cup on 24/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atletico Mineiro 49%, draw 25%, Ceara 26%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Mineiro), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.