Middelfart 0-2 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 24 May 2024

📅24/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
3.08
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
39%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.56
No
49%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.27
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
21%
2.99
6+ Goals
11%
9.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.27 — our 29% vs market 18.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
13%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
29%
+11.4pp
21%
Draw
26%
-4.7pp
39%
Away Win
45%
-6.7pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+5.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-5.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.5pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middelfart EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 49%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -16% / -16%
1.25/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.62
-5% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -18%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
406 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 0.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middelfart
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 7
8 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 1
18.04.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 5-2 HT 2-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
12.11.2023 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-0 HT 1-0 Middelfart Middelfart DAN2
18.08.2023 Middelfart Middelfart 1-2 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middelfart
0-2
AWAY Esbjerg
53% Ball Possession 47%
5 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Middelfart vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Esbjerg beat Middelfart 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 21% / 39% — and on the day Esbjerg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Middelfart had 53% of the ball to Esbjerg's 47%, shots finished 5-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Esbjerg led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Middelfart and 2.67 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Middelfart vs Esbjerg?

Middelfart 0-2 Esbjerg in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 24/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middelfart vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middelfart win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Middelfart 40%, draw 21%, Esbjerg 39%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Middelfart) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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