Persepolis 4-3 Esteghlal Khuzestan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League, 24 May 2024

Persepolis
4-3 HT 0-3
Esteghlal Khuzestan
📅24/05/2024 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League – 2023/2024

Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
20%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.95
No
60%
1.35
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.5
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.8
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.5 — our 37% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
10%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
5%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
72%
-15.5pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.3pp
20%
Away Win
10%
+9.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
+0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
-0.1pp
40%
BTTS Yes
30%
+10.2pp
60%
BTTS No
70%
-10.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Persepolis v Esteghlal Khuzestan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persepolis EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Esteghlal Khuzestan EU Bookmakers 14%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.73/0.48 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/1.08
+3% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +17% / +40%
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
379 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 224 · 68%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persepolis
1W-5D-0L
AWAY Esteghlal Khuzestan
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
The Meetings
13.03.2024 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 0-0 HT 0-0 Persepolis Persepolis IRAN
19.12.2023 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-2 HT 1-1 Persepolis Persepolis IRAN
14.12.2023 Persepolis Persepolis 1-1 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
23.04.2023 Persepolis Persepolis 1-0 HT 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
20.12.2022 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan 2-2 HT 1-1 Persepolis Persepolis IRAN
17.03.2022 Persepolis Persepolis 1-1 HT 1-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan Esteghlal Khuzestan IRAN
POST-MATCH Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persepolis edged past Esteghlal Khuzestan 4-3. It was 0-3 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Persepolis as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persepolis had the better of it with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Persepolis and 1.00 for Esteghlal Khuzestan.

What was the final score of Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?

Persepolis 4-3 Esteghlal Khuzestan in the Iran - Persian Gulf Pro League on 24/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persepolis vs Esteghlal Khuzestan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persepolis win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Persepolis 57%, draw 24%, Esteghlal Khuzestan 20%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persepolis) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Persepolis) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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