BFC Daugavpils 0-2 Riga FC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 24 May 2024

📅24/05/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
6.35
Draw
19%
4.49
Away
60%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.07
Over 2.5
52%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
19%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
34%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
12%
+8.7pp
19%
Draw
18%
+1.1pp
60%
Away Win
70%
-9.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
44%
+3.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
56%
-3.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 16%
Head to Head
AWAY Riga FC EU Bookmakers 75%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -11%
0.68/2.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.01/0.68
-27% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +52%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
248 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
13.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 48.0
12.9 Crosses 32.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Riga FC
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.69 xG 3.01
32% Ball Possession 68%
7 Total Shots 24
2 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 11
111 Passes 408
52% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 57
11 Crosses 43
4 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2024 Riga FC Riga FC 2-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
21.10.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
30.07.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 3-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
08.05.2023 Riga FC Riga FC 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
15.04.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 1-0 Riga FC Riga FC LET
16.10.2022 Riga FC Riga FC 4-0 HT 2-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0-2
AWAY Riga FC
0.59 xG 2.12
35% Ball Possession 65%
7 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 5
184 Passes 425
67% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 27
8 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Riga FC saw off BFC Daugavpils 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Riga FC as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 35% of the ball to Riga FC's 65%, shots finished 7-18, expected goals 0.59 to 2.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Riga FC led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 2.17 for Riga FC.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

BFC Daugavpils 0-2 Riga FC in the Latvia - Virsliga on 24/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga FC?

Before kick-off our model rated an Riga FC win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 21%, draw 19%, Riga FC 60%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Riga FC), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Riga FC) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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24 May 2024
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