Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Mushuc Runa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 24 May 2025

📅24/05/2025 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
23%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-5.5pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.0pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+5.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 21%
-7% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +5%
1.78/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/1.75
-1% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -11%
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
382 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 208 · 74%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.7
20.1 Crosses 18.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Mushuc Runa
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.49 xG 0.91
63% Ball Possession 37%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
394 Passes 216
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
05.10.2024 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-1 HT 1-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
03.11.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
17.10.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
2-1
AWAY Mushuc Runa
2.53 xG 0.92
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
355 Passes 163
83% Pass Accuracy 67%
21 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle edged past Mushuc Runa 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 62% of the ball to Mushuc Runa's 38%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.53 to 0.92 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 0.83 for Mushuc Runa.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Independiente Del Valle 2-1 Mushuc Runa in the Ecuador - Premier on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Mushuc Runa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 55%, draw 22%, Mushuc Runa 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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