Mushuc Runa 1-1 Independiente Del Valle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 5 Oct 2024

Mushuc Runa
1-1 HT 1-1
Independiente Del Valle
📅05/10/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
3.87
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
38%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.82
Over 2.5
41%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
22%
+12.9pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
38%
Away Win
53%
-14.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
51%
+8.2pp
41%
Over 2.5
49%
-8.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-7.3pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Mushuc Runa v Independiente Del Valle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mushuc Runa EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 57%
-2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +9%
0.94/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/0.70
-9% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +60%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
238 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 78%
13.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.5
18.6 Crosses 19.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.7

Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mushuc Runa
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.57 xG 1.22
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
227 Passes 412
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
8 Box Touches 21
12 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
19.04.2024 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-1 HT 2-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
06.08.2023 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 1-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
25.02.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-1 HT 2-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1
03.11.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 0-1 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKVK
17.10.2022 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa 0-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
23.05.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 0-1 HT 0-0 Mushuc Runa Mushuc Runa EKV1

Mushuc Runa 1-1 Independiente Del Valle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mushuc Runa
1-1
AWAY Independiente Del Valle
2.05 xG 1.91
28% Ball Possession 72%
12 Total Shots 25
5 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 8
76 Passes 338
46% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 31
13 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mushuc Runa and Independiente Del Valle shared the points in a 1-1 draw.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (57%) missed.

On the day, Mushuc Runa had 28% of the ball to Independiente Del Valle's 72%, shots finished 12-25, expected goals 2.05 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Mushuc Runa and 1.17 for Independiente Del Valle.

What was the final score of Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Mushuc Runa 1-1 Independiente Del Valle in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mushuc Runa vs Independiente Del Valle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Mushuc Runa 35%, draw 27%, Independiente Del Valle 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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