Libertad 2-1 Cumbaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 5 Oct 2024

📅05/10/2024 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.61
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.13
No
59%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
8%
X/X
20%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
58%
-10.2pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.4pp
21%
Away Win
17%
+3.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.3pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
43%
-1.6pp
59%
BTTS No
57%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Cumbaya EU Bookmakers 20%
+29% / +29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -1%
2.06/0.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.37
+9% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +16%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 227 · 72%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.3
18.7 Crosses 11.1
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Cumbaya
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 0.76
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
340 Passes 344
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 10
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.04.2024 Cumbaya Cumbaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
02.12.2023 Libertad Libertad 3-1 HT 2-0 Cumbaya Cumbaya EKV1
17.06.2023 Cumbaya Cumbaya 2-1 HT 1-0 Libertad Libertad EKV1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
2-1
AWAY Cumbaya
1.89 xG 1.30
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
192 Passes 210
74% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 16
20 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Cumbaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad squeezed past Cumbaya 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Libertad had 49% of the ball to Cumbaya's 51%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.89 to 1.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Libertad and 1.00 for Cumbaya.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Cumbaya?

Libertad 2-1 Cumbaya in the Ecuador - Premier on 05/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Cumbaya?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Libertad 48%, draw 31%, Cumbaya 21%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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