Willem II 3-2 Dordrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 24 May 2025

Willem II
3-2 HT 3-1
Dordrecht
📅24/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Willem II vs Dordrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.51
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.51 — our 27% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.78
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
13%
4.81
X/2
10%
7.3
X/X
15%
5.1
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
10%
5.27
2/X
9%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
27%
-1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.1pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Willem II v Dordrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Dordrecht EU Bookmakers 31%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +23%
1.21/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.73
+9% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -10%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
312 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 76%
17.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
18.9 Crosses 16.5
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Willem II vs Dordrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Dordrecht
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.10 xG 0.83
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
9 Corners 4
313 Passes 276
76% Pass Accuracy 72%
34 Box Touches 15
32 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.05.2025 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-1 HT 2-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
03.05.2024 Dordrecht Dordrecht 1-1 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
18.08.2023 Willem II Willem II 2-0 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
10.02.2023 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 0-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL2
20.11.2022 Dordrecht Dordrecht 2-2 HT 2-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
21.03.2015 Willem II Willem II 2-1 HT 1-0 Dordrecht Dordrecht HOL

Willem II 3-2 Dordrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
3-2
AWAY Dordrecht
1.12 xG 0.61
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 9
356 Passes 387
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
31 Box Touches 28
34 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Willem II vs Dordrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II edged past Dordrecht 3-2. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Willem II had 50% of the ball to Dordrecht's 50%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.12 to 0.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Willem II and 1.00 for Dordrecht.

What was the final score of Willem II vs Dordrecht?

Willem II 3-2 Dordrecht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 24/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs Dordrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Willem II 45%, draw 30%, Dordrecht 25%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✗ BTTS No
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