Derby County 1-3 Freiburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 24 Jul 2026

Derby County
1-3 HT 1-1
Freiburg
📅24/07/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Friendlies – 2026

Derby County vs Freiburg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.69
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
47%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
3.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.26
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.32
No
43%
3.08
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
8.37
2-3 Goals
45%
2.34
4-5 Goals
23%
2.24
6+ Goals
10%
3.53
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.87
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
17.45
1/X
7%
12.1
X/1
11%
9.96
X/2
14%
5.33
X/X
11%
6.82
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
22%
2.16
2/X
6%
11.05
Value flag · 1/2 at 17.45 — our 10% vs market 3.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
24%
+6.3pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
47%
Away Win
53%
-6.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
24%
+22.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
76%
-23.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
72%
-14.2pp
43%
BTTS No
28%
+14.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Derby County v Freiburg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Derby County EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Freiburg EU Bookmakers 57%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.74/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.00
+41% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +14%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
248 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 413 · 81%
9.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
14.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Derby County vs Freiburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Freiburg beat Derby County 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Freiburg as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Derby County vs Freiburg?

Derby County 1-3 Freiburg in the Friendlies on 24/07/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Derby County vs Freiburg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Freiburg win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Derby County 30%, draw 23%, Freiburg 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Freiburg), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Freiburg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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