Barcelona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.18
Over 2.5
50%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.3
2-3 Goals
42%
1.87
4-5 Goals
23%
2.98
6+ Goals
10%
9.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.3 — our 25% vs market 18.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.0
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.3
X/1
22%
3.94
X/2
8%
10.65
X/X
11%
5.96
2/1
7%
21.2
2/2
11%
7.8
2/X
5%
15.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
58%
-4.7pp
23%
Draw
23%
+0.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.6pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Barcelona EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 22%
+7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -19%
2.25/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.37
+37% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -20%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
446 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 340 · 80%
34.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
16.8 Crosses 20.3
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Barcelona
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.65 xG 1.21
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
566 Passes 266
87% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 23
15 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.03.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
24.01.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 4-2 HT 1-2 Barcelona Barcelona İSPK
22.10.2023 Barcelona Barcelona 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
12.03.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-1 Barcelona Barcelona İS1
23.10.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 3-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
27.02.2022 Barcelona Barcelona 4-0 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Barcelona
2-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
1.83 xG 1.03
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
497 Passes 232
88% Pass Accuracy 79%
28 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Barcelona nicked a narrow win over Athletic Bilbao 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Barcelona as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Barcelona had 65% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 35%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 1.83 to 1.03.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Barcelona had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Barcelona and 0.67 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?

Barcelona 2-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Barcelona vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Barcelona win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Barcelona 53%, draw 23%, Athletic Bilbao 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Barcelona) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Barcelona) ✗ BTTS No
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