Parma 2-1 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 24 Aug 2024

Parma
2-1 HT 1-0
Milan
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2024/2025

Parma vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
21%
3.8
Away
56%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.23
Over 2.5
58%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.66
No
48%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.56
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.88
6+ Goals
16%
8.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.66
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
20.9
1/X
6%
15.5
X/1
7%
10.7
X/2
20%
4.01
X/X
10%
6.05
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.99
2/X
5%
14.9
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.9 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
19%
+3.9pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.1pp
56%
Away Win
58%
-1.8pp
42%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.7pp
58%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-4.2pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Parma v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parma EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 62%
+12% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.43/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.94/1.10
-4% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -20%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
292 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 417 · 83%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
16.7 Crosses 16.2
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.0

Parma vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parma
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Milan
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.01 xG 1.52
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
300 Passes 458
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
10.04.2021 Parma Parma 1-3 HT 0-2 Milan Milan İTA
13.12.2020 Milan Milan 2-2 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
15.07.2020 Milan Milan 3-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
01.12.2019 Parma Parma 0-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
20.04.2019 Parma Parma 1-1 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
02.12.2018 Milan Milan 2-1 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTA

Parma 2-1 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parma
2-1
AWAY Milan
1.73 xG 1.95
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 17
5 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
310 Passes 487
84% Pass Accuracy 88%
15 Box Touches 41
2 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Parma vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parma squeezed past Milan 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

This one beat our numbers. Milan carried 56% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Parma had 39% of the ball to Milan's 61%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.73 to 1.95.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Parma and 2.00 for Milan.

What was the final score of Parma vs Milan?

Parma 2-1 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parma vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Parma 23%, draw 21%, Milan 56%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Milan) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Milan) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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