Botev Plovdiv 0-1 Spartak Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.75
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.78
Over 2.5
53%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
28%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.3pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Spartak Varna EU Bookmakers 24%
-23% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +9%
1.64/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/1.43
+9% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +63% / -25%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
322 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Spartak Varna
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
66% Ball Possession 34%
19 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.02.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 2-1 HT 1-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BULK
17.04.2023 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-1 HT 1-0 Spartak Varna Spartak Varna BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
0-1
AWAY Spartak Varna
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 8
0 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Spartak Varna squeezed past Botev Plovdiv 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Botev Plovdiv at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 56% of the ball to Spartak Varna's 44%, shots finished 8-8.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Botev Plovdiv had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 1.00 for Spartak Varna.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?

Botev Plovdiv 0-1 Spartak Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated a Botev Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 53%, draw 22%, Spartak Varna 25%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Botev Plovdiv), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Botev Plovdiv) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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