NAC Breda 1-2 Utrecht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Aug 2024

NAC Breda
1-2 HT 1-0
Utrecht
📅24/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

NAC Breda vs Utrecht Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.32
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
45%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.68
No
50%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.63
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
27%
3.33
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.45
1/2
6%
24.0
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
6%
7.63
X/2
14%
4.58
X/X
16%
4.78
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.65
2/X
6%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 6% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
+0.3pp
28%
Draw
26%
+2.1pp
45%
Away Win
47%
-2.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.8pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NAC Breda v Utrecht — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NAC Breda EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Utrecht EU Bookmakers 51%
+8% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.43/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.62/1.26
+5% / +15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +5%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
284 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
19.3 Crosses 18.4
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.7

NAC Breda vs Utrecht Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NAC Breda
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Utrecht
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.42 xG 2.14
40% Ball Possession 60%
12 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
267 Passes 431
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 31
12 Crosses 33
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
14.12.2021 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-2 HT 0-1 Utrecht Utrecht HOK
16.03.2019 NAC Breda NAC Breda 0-4 HT 0-2 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
05.10.2018 Utrecht Utrecht 2-1 HT 1-0 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
23.12.2017 NAC Breda NAC Breda 3-1 HT 1-0 Utrecht Utrecht HOL
29.10.2017 Utrecht Utrecht 2-2 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL
20.03.2015 Utrecht Utrecht 3-4 HT 1-1 NAC Breda NAC Breda HOL

NAC Breda 1-2 Utrecht — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NAC Breda
1-2
AWAY Utrecht
0.88 xG 1.90
44% Ball Possession 56%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 5
277 Passes 379
75% Pass Accuracy 81%
8 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH NAC Breda vs Utrecht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht edged past NAC Breda 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Utrecht as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, NAC Breda had 44% of the ball to Utrecht's 56%, shots finished 7-13, expected goals 0.88 to 1.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, NAC Breda had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for NAC Breda and 2.33 for Utrecht.

What was the final score of NAC Breda vs Utrecht?

NAC Breda 1-2 Utrecht in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NAC Breda vs Utrecht?

Before kick-off our model rated an Utrecht win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split NAC Breda 27%, draw 28%, Utrecht 45%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Utrecht), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Utrecht) ✓ Over 2.5
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