NEC Nijmegen 1-0 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 24 Aug 2024

📅24/08/2024 · 🕒19:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
21%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.29
Over 2.5
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
22%
4.81
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
15%
7.67
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.81 — our 22% vs market 16.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
2.02
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.7
X/1
13%
4.23
X/2
7%
10.8
X/X
12%
5.8
2/1
8%
21.2
2/2
9%
7.53
2/X
5%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
57%
-3.0pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+1.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.0pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 22%
-10% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / +0%
1.78/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.94
-2% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +20%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
322 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 76%
28.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
24.8 Crosses 14.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.08 xG 1.35
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
331 Passes 383
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
23 Box Touches 26
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.04.2024 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-2 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
09.12.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
05.02.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
20.08.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 2-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
19.12.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
10.02.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
1-0
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.97 xG 0.54
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 2
385 Passes 312
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen edged past PEC Zwolle 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had NEC Nijmegen as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 54% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 46%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.97 to 0.54 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold NEC Nijmegen's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.33 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

NEC Nijmegen 1-0 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 24/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 54%, draw 25%, PEC Zwolle 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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