NEC Nijmegen 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Apr 2024

NEC Nijmegen
2-2 HT 0-1
PEC Zwolle
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
19%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.63
No
50%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.72
2-3 Goals
41%
1.92
4-5 Goals
25%
2.84
6+ Goals
12%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1.98
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.25
X/1
19%
4.0
X/2
7%
10.7
X/X
12%
6.27
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.4
2/2
7%
7.56
2/X
4%
15.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
59%
-1.9pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
19%
Away Win
19%
+0.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+5.7pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
57%
-7.2pp
50%
BTTS No
43%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

NEC Nijmegen v PEC Zwolle — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME NEC Nijmegen EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY PEC Zwolle EU Bookmakers 22%
-13% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.88/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.83
+6% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +14%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
353 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
28.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.4
24.3 Crosses 14.4
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2W-2D-2L
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.95 xG 1.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
292 Passes 394
76% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
09.12.2023 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-3 HT 0-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
05.02.2022 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 1-1 HT 1-1 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
20.08.2021 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 2-0 HT 2-0 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL
19.12.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOK
10.02.2017 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle 2-0 HT 0-0 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen HOL
05.08.2016 NEC Nijmegen NEC Nijmegen 1-1 HT 0-1 PEC Zwolle PEC Zwolle HOL

NEC Nijmegen 2-2 PEC Zwolle — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME NEC Nijmegen
2-2
AWAY PEC Zwolle
1.60 xG 0.88
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 11
9 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 3
423 Passes 311
85% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 19
28 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

NEC Nijmegen and PEC Zwolle couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-1.

This one beat our numbers. NEC Nijmegen carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, NEC Nijmegen had 58% of the ball to PEC Zwolle's 42%, shots finished 17-11, expected goals 1.60 to 0.88.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen and 1.17 for PEC Zwolle.

What was the final score of NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

NEC Nijmegen 2-2 PEC Zwolle in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for NEC Nijmegen vs PEC Zwolle?

Before kick-off our model rated a NEC Nijmegen win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split NEC Nijmegen 57%, draw 23%, PEC Zwolle 19%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (NEC Nijmegen) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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