Ajax 2-1 Twente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 14 Apr 2024

Ajax
2-1 HT 0-1
Twente
📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.27
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.0
Over 2.5
52%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.61
No
43%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.22
6+ Goals
13%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.33
1/2
9%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.2
X/1
15%
5.41
X/2
14%
6.22
X/X
12%
4.72
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2
10%
4.05
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
40%
+0.7pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.0pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.4pp
43%
BTTS No
42%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Twente EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +13%
0.74/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.19
-4% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
306 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 75%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
18.5 Crosses 17.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Twente
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.95 xG 1.44
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 3
428 Passes 299
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.09.2023 Twente Twente 3-1 HT 2-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
28.05.2023 Twente Twente 3-1 HT 0-1 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.02.2023 Twente Twente 0-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOK
14.01.2023 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 Twente Twente HOL
13.02.2022 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 1-0 Twente Twente HOL
22.08.2021 Twente Twente 1-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-1
AWAY Twente
2.12 xG 0.45
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
466 Passes 339
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Twente
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax edged past Twente 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Ajax had 56% of the ball to Twente's 44%, shots finished 8-7, expected goals 2.12 to 0.45 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Ajax's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Ajax and 1.17 for Twente.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Twente?

Ajax 2-1 Twente in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Twente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ajax 41%, draw 26%, Twente 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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