Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.86
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.56
6+ Goals
11%
14.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.32 — our 27% vs market 24.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.45
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
13%
4.32
X/2
8%
8.52
X/X
14%
4.58
2/1
15%
24.85
2/2
13%
6.44
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
50%
-4.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.4pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+0.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-0.9pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.1pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cagliari EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cremonese EU Bookmakers 27%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
2.27/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.89/0.89
+23% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / +77%
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
390 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 72%
33.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
38.3 Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cagliari
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Cremonese
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
28.10.2020 Cagliari Cagliari 1-0 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese İTK
26.07.2018 Cagliari Cagliari 1-0 HT 0-0 Cremonese Cremonese HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cagliari
1-0
AWAY Cremonese
1.83 xG 0.43
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 2
373 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
25 Box Touches 13
28 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Cagliari vs Cremonese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cagliari edged past Cremonese 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Cagliari as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Cagliari had 49% of the ball to Cremonese's 51%, shots finished 13-12, expected goals 1.83 to 0.43 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cagliari's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cagliari had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cagliari and 0.00 for Cremonese.

What was the final score of Cagliari vs Cremonese?

Cagliari 1-0 Cremonese in the Italy - Cup on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cagliari vs Cremonese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cagliari win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Cagliari 46%, draw 28%, Cremonese 26%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cagliari), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cagliari) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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