Lecce 0-2 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 24 Sep 2024

Lecce
0-2 HT 0-1
Sassuolo
📅24/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Italy - Cup – 2024/2025

Lecce vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
27%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.91
Over 2.5
52%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.76
No
50%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.46
2-3 Goals
41%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
3.45
6+ Goals
11%
13.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.3
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
15%
4.19
X/2
14%
9.22
X/X
8%
4.78
2/1
6%
24.0
2/2
8%
7.01
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
14.3
Value flag · 2/X at 14.3 — our 11% vs market 4.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-5.8pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
27%
Away Win
22%
+6.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
48%
-0.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
52%
+0.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
53%
-2.9pp
50%
BTTS No
47%
+2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lecce v Sassuolo — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 25%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -29%
1.56/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.62/1.91
-20% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -3%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
356 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 325 · 79%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
18.7 Crosses –
1.2 Yellow Cards –

Lecce vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 1.34
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
251 Passes 431
76% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
21.04.2024 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-3 HT 0-2 Lecce Lecce İTA
06.10.2023 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
25.02.2023 Lecce Lecce 0-1 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
20.08.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-0 HT 1-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
04.07.2020 Sassuolo Sassuolo 4-2 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTA
03.11.2019 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 2-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA

Lecce 0-2 Sassuolo — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
0-2
AWAY Sassuolo
0.81 xG 1.27
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 12
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
498 Passes 241
87% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 19
27 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sassuolo saw off Lecce 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lecce at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lecce had 65% of the ball to Sassuolo's 35%, shots finished 14-12, expected goals 0.81 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lecce and 1.50 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Sassuolo?

Lecce 0-2 Sassuolo in the Italy - Cup on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Lecce 47%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 27%. The final score 0-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lecce) ✗ Over 2.5
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