Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Wehen Wiesbaden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 24 Sep 2024

📅24/09/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.09
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
37%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.56
No
42%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.28
2-3 Goals
35%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.99
6+ Goals
16%
9.13
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.92
1/2
10%
30.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
10%
5.02
X/2
6%
6.75
X/X
11%
5.22
2/1
7%
23.6
2/2
20%
4.41
2/X
5%
12.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
44%
-3.4pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.1pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-2.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+2.2pp
58%
BTTS Yes
60%
-1.9pp
42%
BTTS No
40%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Wehen Wiesbaden EU Bookmakers 34%
+2% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -15%
1.40/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.66
-13% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +40% / -11%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
299 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
Crosses 16.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Wehen Wiesbaden
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.32 xG 1.76
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
386 Passes 206
78% Pass Accuracy 66%
14 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 23
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2023 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-2 HT 0-1 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
14.08.2022 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-5 HT 0-2 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AL3
28.01.2020 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL2
04.08.2019 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 3-2 HT 2-1 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden AL2
13.08.2017 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 2-0 HT 2-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AFK
15.04.2016 Wehen Wiesbaden Wehen Wiesbaden 1-0 HT 1-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Wehen Wiesbaden
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 7
350 Passes 505
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
12 Crosses 25
5 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Wehen Wiesbaden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue squeezed past Wehen Wiesbaden 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 23% / 37% — and on the day Erzgebirge Aue made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 42% of the ball to Wehen Wiesbaden's 58%, shots finished 9-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wehen Wiesbaden led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 2.00 for Wehen Wiesbaden.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Wehen Wiesbaden?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Wehen Wiesbaden in the Germany - 3rd Division on 24/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Wehen Wiesbaden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 40%, draw 23%, Wehen Wiesbaden 37%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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