BG Pathum United 2-2 Buriram United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFCAKŞ, 24 Sep 2025

BG Pathum United
2-2 HT 2-2
Buriram United
📅24/09/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-2 ✗
AFCAKŞ – 2025/2026

BG Pathum United vs Buriram United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.13
Draw
18%
3.8
Away
57%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
2.18
Over 2.5
43%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.02
2-3 Goals
45%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
2.85
6+ Goals
9%
8.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.02 — our 27% vs market 18.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
12%
X/2
25%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
29%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
21%
+4.0pp
18%
Draw
23%
-5.0pp
57%
Away Win
56%
+1.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
42%
+15.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
58%
-15.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.9pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

BG Pathum United v Buriram United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BG Pathum United EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Buriram United EU Bookmakers 61%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
259 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

BG Pathum United vs Buriram United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BG Pathum United
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Buriram United
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.11 xG 0.91
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
363 Passes 328
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
19.07.2025 Buriram United Buriram United 1-1 HT 1-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United HAZ
12.04.2025 Buriram United Buriram United 1-2 HT 1-1 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
29.12.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-2 HT 0-0 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
03.04.2024 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 1-1 HT 0-1 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
29.10.2023 Buriram United Buriram United 0-0 HT 0-0 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United TAY
04.02.2023 BG Pathum United BG Pathum United 0-2 HT 0-1 Buriram United Buriram United TAY
POST-MATCH BG Pathum United vs Buriram United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BG Pathum United and Buriram United couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

This one beat our numbers. Buriram United carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Buriram United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.17 for Buriram United.

What was the final score of BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?

BG Pathum United 2-2 Buriram United in the AFCAKŞ on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BG Pathum United vs Buriram United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Buriram United win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split BG Pathum United 25%, draw 18%, Buriram United 57%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Buriram United) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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