Paredes 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 24 Sep 2025

📅24/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
1.8
Draw
32%
3.35
Away
33%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.67
Over 2.5
45%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.96
No
45%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
18%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
52%
-17.1pp
32%
Draw
27%
+5.5pp
33%
Away Win
22%
+11.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.1pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+8.0pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paredes EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes II EU Bookmakers 25%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -26% / -26%
1.00/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.14/1.28
-25% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -86% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
350 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paredes
1W-2D-0L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes II
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 4
29.04.2023 Paredes Paredes 0-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
08.04.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II 0-1 HT 0-1 Paredes Paredes POR3
13.01.2023 Paredes Paredes 1-1 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes II Vitoria Guimaraes II POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paredes
1-1
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes II
45% Ball Possession 55%
19 Total Shots 10
11 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paredes vs Vitoria Guimaraes II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paredes and Vitoria Guimaraes II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 32% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Paredes had 45% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes II's 55%, shots finished 19-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Paredes had the better of it with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Paredes and 0.33 for Vitoria Guimaraes II.

What was the final score of Paredes vs Vitoria Guimaraes II?

Paredes 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 24/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paredes vs Vitoria Guimaraes II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paredes win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Paredes 35%, draw 32%, Vitoria Guimaraes II 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Paredes) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Paredes) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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