Baglan Dragons 3-4 Treowen Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 24 Oct 2025

📅24/10/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.64
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
26%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.73
No
44%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
57%
-6.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
26%
Away Win
20%
+5.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.3pp
56%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.8pp
44%
BTTS No
46%
-1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Treowen Stars EU Bookmakers 23%
-11% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
2.58/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.79
+25% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / +14%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
394 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Treowen Stars nicked a narrow win over Baglan Dragons 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Baglan Dragons at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?

Baglan Dragons 3-4 Treowen Stars in the Wales - FAW Championship on 24/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Treowen Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 50%, draw 24%, Treowen Stars 26%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Baglan Dragons) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✓ BTTS Yes
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