Southampton 2-3 Liverpool — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
5.91
Draw
24%
4.62
Away
55%
1.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.63
Over 2.5
55%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
6.26
2-3 Goals
35%
2.12
4-5 Goals
26%
2.58
6+ Goals
16%
5.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
11.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
19.95
1/X
5%
19.2
X/1
6%
16.7
X/2
22%
3.8
X/X
11%
8.25
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.6
2/X
8%
19.3
Value flag · 1/2 at 19.95 — our 10% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
14%
+6.7pp
24%
Draw
18%
+5.3pp
56%
Away Win
68%
-12.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
34%
+10.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
66%
-10.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Southampton EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Liverpool EU Bookmakers 72%
+7% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +6%
1.07/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.02/1.07
+21% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -15%
36% Ball Possession 64%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
229 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 501 · 86%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 37.1
13.8 Crosses 22.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Southampton
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Liverpool
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.16 xG 2.26
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
316 Passes 544
78% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 40
13 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
28.02.2024 Liverpool Liverpool 3-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton FAK
28.05.2023 Southampton Southampton 4-4 HT 2-2 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
12.11.2022 Liverpool Liverpool 3-1 HT 3-1 Southampton Southampton İNP
17.05.2022 Southampton Southampton 1-2 HT 1-1 Liverpool Liverpool İNP
27.11.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 4-0 HT 3-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
08.05.2021 Liverpool Liverpool 2-0 HT 1-0 Southampton Southampton İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Southampton
2-3
AWAY Liverpool
1.28 xG 3.15
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 27
5 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 10
303 Passes 531
83% Pass Accuracy 89%
18 Box Touches 51
8 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Southampton vs Liverpool
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liverpool edged past Southampton 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Liverpool as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Southampton had 38% of the ball to Liverpool's 62%, shots finished 7-27, expected goals 1.28 to 3.15 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Liverpool's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Liverpool led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Southampton and 3.00 for Liverpool.

What was the final score of Southampton vs Liverpool?

Southampton 2-3 Liverpool in the England - Premier League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Southampton vs Liverpool?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liverpool win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Southampton 21%, draw 24%, Liverpool 56%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liverpool), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Liverpool) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
24 Nov 2024
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