Paysandu 2-1 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
19%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.03
Over 2.5
44%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.13
No
56%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.83
2-3 Goals
38%
1.85
4-5 Goals
20%
3.26
6+ Goals
10%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.83 — our 32% vs market 21.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
71%
-15.0pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.0pp
19%
Away Win
11%
+8.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
45%
+10.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
55%
-10.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
43%
+1.3pp
56%
BTTS No
57%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paysandu EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 14%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -6%
1.23/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.42
-20% / +92% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
342 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 77%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
26.1 Crosses 16.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paysandu
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Vila Nova
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.41 xG 0.65
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
264 Passes 270
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 3
06.08.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-2 HT 1-1 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
20.11.2022 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRVK
19.10.2020 Paysandu Paysandu 0-0 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BRE3
15.08.2020 Vila Nova Vila Nova 2-0 HT 1-0 Paysandu Paysandu BRE3
03.11.2018 Vila Nova Vila Nova 0-0 HT 0-0 Paysandu Paysandu BR2
13.07.2018 Paysandu Paysandu 1-2 HT 0-0 Vila Nova Vila Nova BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paysandu
2-1
AWAY Vila Nova
2.13 xG 0.48
64% Ball Possession 36%
28 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 2
448 Passes 234
91% Pass Accuracy 84%
40 Box Touches 4
30 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Paysandu vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paysandu edged past Vila Nova 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Paysandu as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Paysandu had 64% of the ball to Vila Nova's 36%, shots finished 28-11, expected goals 2.13 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Paysandu's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vila Nova led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Paysandu and 1.17 for Vila Nova.

What was the final score of Paysandu vs Vila Nova?

Paysandu 2-1 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paysandu vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paysandu win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Paysandu 56%, draw 25%, Vila Nova 19%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paysandu) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Paysandu) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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BR2 More Brazil - Serie B
24 Nov 2024
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