Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Atletico Nacional — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.53
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
33%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.64
Over 2.5
37%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
5%
X/1
15%
X/2
13%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
36%
+1.4pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.1pp
63%
Under 2.5
57%
+5.8pp
37%
Over 2.5
43%
-5.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.7pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Nacional EU Bookmakers 39%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
0.98/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/1.04
-7% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
277 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 78%
14.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.0
19.5 Crosses 13.8
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Deportivo Pasto
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.18 xG 0.96
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
286 Passes 313
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.10.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-2 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
25.03.2024 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
25.08.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 2-0 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
18.06.2023 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional 3-2 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
21.05.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
06.03.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Nacional Atletico Nacional KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Deportivo Pasto
0-1
AWAY Atletico Nacional
0.81 xG 0.68
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
356 Passes 203
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 15
38 Crosses 6
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Nacional squeezed past Deportivo Pasto 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 30% / 33%) promised a tight game; Atletico Nacional found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Deportivo Pasto had 61% of the ball to Atletico Nacional's 39%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 0.81 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Nacional led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Deportivo Pasto and 1.67 for Atletico Nacional.

What was the final score of Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?

Deportivo Pasto 0-1 Atletico Nacional in the Colombia - Primera on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Deportivo Pasto vs Atletico Nacional?

Before kick-off our model rated a Deportivo Pasto win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Deportivo Pasto 37%, draw 30%, Atletico Nacional 33%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Deportivo Pasto) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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