Fakel 1-1 Dinamo Moscow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 24 Nov 2024

Fakel
1-1 HT 0-1
Dinamo Moscow
📅24/11/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Fakel vs Dinamo Moscow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
43%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.2
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.75
6+ Goals
9%
15.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
5.58
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
14.2
X/1
16%
7.39
X/2
18%
4.47
X/X
10%
4.63
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.75
2/X
11%
13.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.8pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fakel v Dinamo Moscow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fakel EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 50%
+10% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +11%
0.98/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.77/1.29
-14% / +84% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -28%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
256 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 74%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.3
21.3 Crosses 14.9
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Fakel vs Dinamo Moscow Head-to-Head — Last 5 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fakel
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.31 xG 1.43
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
253 Passes 307
72% Pass Accuracy 73%
20 Box Touches 27
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.07.2024 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 3-1 HT 3-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
10.12.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
08.10.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
28.04.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
30.07.2022 Fakel Fakel 3-3 HT 0-2 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS

Fakel 1-1 Dinamo Moscow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fakel
1-1
AWAY Dinamo Moscow
1.87 xG 1.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
27 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
270 Passes 208
73% Pass Accuracy 67%
52 Box Touches 18
31 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fakel vs Dinamo Moscow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fakel and Dinamo Moscow shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Moscow at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Fakel had 55% of the ball to Dinamo Moscow's 45%, shots finished 27-11, expected goals 1.87 to 1.74.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Fakel and 1.40 for Dinamo Moscow.

What was the final score of Fakel vs Dinamo Moscow?

Fakel 1-1 Dinamo Moscow in the Russia - Premier League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fakel vs Dinamo Moscow?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Fakel 30%, draw 27%, Dinamo Moscow 43%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Moscow), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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