Dinamo Moscow 3-1 Fakel — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 20 Jul 2024

Dinamo Moscow
3-1 HT 3-0
Fakel
📅20/07/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Russia - Premier League – 2024/2025

Dinamo Moscow vs Fakel Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.72
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.82
Over 2.5
48%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.88
No
53%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.71
6+ Goals
8%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 28% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.22
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.95
X/1
14%
3.9
X/2
10%
9.39
X/X
12%
4.85
2/1
9%
24.45
2/2
10%
7.54
2/X
9%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
54%
-9.2pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.5pp
28%
Away Win
20%
+7.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
51%
+0.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
49%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.7pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Dinamo Moscow v Fakel — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Moscow EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Fakel EU Bookmakers 23%
-5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.71/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.39
-15% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
382 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 239 · 69%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.5
20.1 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2

Dinamo Moscow vs Fakel Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Moscow
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Fakel
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.48 xG 1.42
55% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
324 Passes 246
74% Pass Accuracy 71%
29 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
10.12.2023 Fakel Fakel 1-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS
08.10.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-0 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
28.04.2023 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow 0-2 HT 0-0 Fakel Fakel RUS
30.07.2022 Fakel Fakel 3-3 HT 0-2 Dinamo Moscow Dinamo Moscow RUS

Dinamo Moscow 3-1 Fakel — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Moscow
3-1
AWAY Fakel
1.24 xG 0.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
238 Passes 285
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 16
12 Crosses 22
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Dinamo Moscow vs Fakel
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Moscow got the better of Fakel 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dinamo Moscow as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Dinamo Moscow had 48% of the ball to Fakel's 52%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 1.24 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fakel led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Dinamo Moscow and 1.50 for Fakel.

What was the final score of Dinamo Moscow vs Fakel?

Dinamo Moscow 3-1 Fakel in the Russia - Premier League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Moscow vs Fakel?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Moscow 45%, draw 27%, Fakel 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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