Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 Akron — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Premier League, 20 Jul 2024

📅20/07/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.61
Draw
28%
3.8
Away
27%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.0
Over 2.5
45%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.81
No
53%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.71
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.27
6+ Goals
9%
11.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.71 — our 28% vs market 21.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.03
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
15.7
X/1
15%
3.82
X/2 EV+ ✗
13%
10.45
X/X
11%
5.56
2/1
7%
22.3
2/2
7%
8.11
2/X
8%
16.4
Value flag · X/2 at 10.45 — our 13% vs market 6.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
58%
-13.4pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.3pp
27%
Away Win
19%
+8.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
46%
+8.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
54%
-8.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.4pp
53%
BTTS No
49%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Akron EU Bookmakers 22%
-8% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +62% / +62%
1.60/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.40/0.96
-9% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +92% /
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
393 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 72%
27.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
17.6 Crosses 10.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Akron
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 2
24.01.2024 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow 0-2 HT 0-2 Akron Akron HAZ
14.03.2023 Akron Akron 1-1 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Moscow Lokomotiv Moscow RUSK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Moscow
3-2
AWAY Akron
2.01 xG 0.75
42% Ball Possession 58%
19 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
241 Passes 343
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Moscow vs Akron
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Moscow nicked a narrow win over Akron 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lokomotiv Moscow as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lokomotiv Moscow had 42% of the ball to Akron's 58%, shots finished 19-13, expected goals 2.01 to 0.75 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Lokomotiv Moscow's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Akron led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lokomotiv Moscow and 1.50 for Akron.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Moscow vs Akron?

Lokomotiv Moscow 3-2 Akron in the Russia - Premier League on 20/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Moscow vs Akron?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Moscow 44%, draw 28%, Akron 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lokomotiv Moscow) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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