Asteras Tripolis 1-2 PAOK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Greece - Super League, 24 Nov 2024

📅24/11/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.34
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
54%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.03
No
56%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.82
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 29% vs market 26.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
9.98
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
18.15
X/1
7%
11.75
X/2
17%
3.64
X/X
11%
5.14
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.98
2/X
5%
17.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
16%
+6.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
54%
Away Win
60%
-6.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
45%
-1.1pp
56%
BTTS No
55%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Asteras Tripolis EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY PAOK EU Bookmakers 64%
+12% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +12%
0.63/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.76
+4% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -6%
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
248 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 423 · 84%
13.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.9
15.1 Crosses 18.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Asteras Tripolis
0W-2D-4L
AWAY PAOK
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.06 xG 1.99
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
294 Passes 430
79% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.12.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 1-4 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
20.08.2023 PAOK PAOK 3-0 HT 1-0 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
13.02.2023 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 2-2 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
23.10.2022 PAOK PAOK 2-2 HT 0-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
19.12.2021 PAOK PAOK 3-2 HT 1-1 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis YUN
19.09.2021 Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 0-1 HT 0-1 PAOK PAOK YUN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Asteras Tripolis
1-2
AWAY PAOK
0.76 xG 1.48
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
197 Passes 443
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
17 Box Touches 31
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PAOK edged past Asteras Tripolis 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had PAOK as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Asteras Tripolis had 36% of the ball to PAOK's 64%, shots finished 8-15, expected goals 0.76 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, PAOK led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Asteras Tripolis and 2.50 for PAOK.

What was the final score of Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?

Asteras Tripolis 1-2 PAOK in the Greece - Super League on 24/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Asteras Tripolis vs PAOK?

Before kick-off our model rated an PAOK win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Asteras Tripolis 22%, draw 23%, PAOK 54%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PAOK) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (PAOK) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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