Sofapaka 1-3 Ulinzi Stars — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kenya - Premier League, 24 Nov 2025

📅24/11/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.18
Draw
37%
2.77
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
Over 2.5
32%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.4
No
55%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
13%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
24%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
42%
-5.8pp
37%
Draw
32%
+4.4pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
38%
+7.4pp
55%
BTTS No
62%
-7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sofapaka EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Ulinzi Stars EU Bookmakers 29%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.27/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.08
+34% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
251 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 257 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 0.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sofapaka
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Ulinzi Stars
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 0
04.04.2025 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars 0-1 HT 0-1 Sofapaka Sofapaka KEN
07.12.2024 Sofapaka Sofapaka 4-1 HT 1-1 Ulinzi Stars Ulinzi Stars KEN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sofapaka
1-3
AWAY Ulinzi Stars
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ulinzi Stars beat Sofapaka 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 37% / 27% — and on the day Ulinzi Stars made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sofapaka had 52% of the ball to Ulinzi Stars's 48%, shots finished 14-16.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Sofapaka had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Sofapaka and 0.50 for Ulinzi Stars.

What was the final score of Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars?

Sofapaka 1-3 Ulinzi Stars in the Kenya - Premier League on 24/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sofapaka vs Ulinzi Stars?

Before kick-off our model rated a draw the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Sofapaka 36%, draw 37%, Ulinzi Stars 27%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Draw) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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