Samsunspor 2-0 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 25 Jan 2024

📅25/01/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
27%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.97
Over 2.5
46%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.7
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
3.31
6+ Goals
11%
11.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.25
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.25
X/1
15%
4.07
X/2
9%
8.87
X/X
10%
5.2
2/1
9%
22.6
2/2
13%
6.65
2/X
8%
14.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
53%
-6.2pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.9pp
27%
Away Win
23%
+4.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
47%
+7.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
53%
-7.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.7pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -4%
1.83/0.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.06/1.58
+33% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
391 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 76%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.9 Crosses 16.8
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Samsunspor
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Kayserispor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.42 xG 1.22
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 8
328 Passes 414
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 14
27.08.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-1 HT 2-1 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
21.02.2015 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor T1L
28.09.2014 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-1 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
18.03.2012 Kayserispor Kayserispor 2-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
08.12.2011 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-1 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
25.07.2006 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-1 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor KAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Samsunspor
2-0
AWAY Kayserispor
0.97 xG 0.48
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
247 Passes 435
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
26 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 12
POST-MATCH Samsunspor vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Samsunspor got the better of Kayserispor 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Samsunspor as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Samsunspor had 39% of the ball to Kayserispor's 61%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.97 to 0.48.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kayserispor led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Samsunspor and 1.17 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?

Samsunspor 2-0 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 25/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Samsunspor vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Samsunspor win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Samsunspor 47%, draw 26%, Kayserispor 27%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Samsunspor), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Samsunspor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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