Independiente 2-1 CA Sarmiento — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 25 Jan 2025

📅25/01/2025 · 🕒01:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
27%
3.64
Away
16%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.51
No
64%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.23
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
16%
4.87
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.93
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
10%
19.1
X/1
18%
3.57
X/2
7%
12.7
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
5%
12.6
2/X
5%
22.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.8pp
27%
Draw
24%
+2.8pp
16%
Away Win
14%
+2.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.9pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
36%
+0.8pp
64%
BTTS No
64%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY CA Sarmiento EU Bookmakers 17%
-7% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.47/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.34
-7% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
352 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 222 · 69%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
24.3 Crosses 16.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente
4W-2D-0L
AWAY CA Sarmiento
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.36 xG 0.63
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
388 Passes 187
78% Pass Accuracy 62%
24 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2024 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-0 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
10.06.2023 Independiente Independiente 2-0 HT 1-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
12.09.2022 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 1-2 HT 0-0 Independiente Independiente ARJ
22.10.2021 Independiente Independiente 1-1 HT 1-1 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
16.03.2021 Independiente Independiente 6-0 HT 4-0 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento ARJ
03.10.2016 CA Sarmiento CA Sarmiento 0-1 HT 0-1 Independiente Independiente ARJ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente
2-1
AWAY CA Sarmiento
2.42 xG 1.00
63% Ball Possession 37%
20 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 2
390 Passes 203
87% Pass Accuracy 78%
34 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Independiente vs CA Sarmiento
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente nicked a narrow win over CA Sarmiento 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Independiente had 63% of the ball to CA Sarmiento's 37%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.42 to 1.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independiente and 0.33 for CA Sarmiento.

What was the final score of Independiente vs CA Sarmiento?

Independiente 2-1 CA Sarmiento in the Argentina - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente vs CA Sarmiento?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente 57%, draw 27%, CA Sarmiento 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Independiente) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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