Independiente vs CA Sarmiento Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Independiente v CA Sarmiento — Team-Based Signals
Independiente vs CA Sarmiento Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
CA Sarmiento
ARJ
1-2
HT 0-0
Independiente
ARJ
1-1
HT 1-1
CA Sarmiento
ARJ
6-0
HT 4-0
CA Sarmiento
ARJ
0-1
HT 0-1
Independiente
ARJ
Independiente 2-1 CA Sarmiento — Actual Match Statistics
Independiente nicked a narrow win over CA Sarmiento 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.
As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (64%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Independiente had 63% of the ball to CA Sarmiento's 37%, shots finished 20-5, expected goals 2.42 to 1.00 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independiente and 0.33 for CA Sarmiento.
What was the final score of Independiente vs CA Sarmiento?
Independiente 2-1 CA Sarmiento in the Argentina - Premier League on 25/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Independiente vs CA Sarmiento?
Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Independiente 57%, draw 27%, CA Sarmiento 16%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.