Lugano 2-0 Zürich — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 25 Feb 2024

📅25/02/2024 · 🕒16:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.73
No
46%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.7
6+ Goals
12%
15.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.22
1/2
5%
33.0
1/X
9%
12.95
X/1
9%
4.96
X/2
11%
6.27
X/X
11%
4.42
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
18%
4.48
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.9pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.7pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.0pp
46%
BTTS No
46%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugano EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Zürich EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +1%
1.32/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.42
-21% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 74%
20.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
15.8 Crosses 19.0
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lugano
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Zürich
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.16 xG 1.14
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
335 Passes 271
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
17 Box Touches 18
10 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 4
12.11.2023 Lugano Lugano 0-3 HT 0-2 Zürich Zürich İSV
05.08.2023 Zürich Zürich 3-0 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
29.05.2023 Zürich Zürich 2-3 HT 0-2 Lugano Lugano İSV
11.03.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 2-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
06.11.2022 Lugano Lugano 2-0 HT 1-0 Zürich Zürich İSV
03.09.2022 Zürich Zürich 1-2 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugano
2-0
AWAY Zürich
1.51 xG 0.47
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 1
271 Passes 382
73% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 11
10 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lugano vs Zürich
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano beat Zürich 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Lugano had 44% of the ball to Zürich's 56%, shots finished 11-8, expected goals 1.51 to 0.47.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lugano had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lugano and 1.50 for Zürich.

What was the final score of Lugano vs Zürich?

Lugano 2-0 Zürich in the Switzerland - Super League on 25/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugano vs Zürich?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Lugano 39%, draw 27%, Zürich 34%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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